Elite NFL Prediction Model

Data-driven betting recommendations powered by advanced machine learning

View Latest Predictions
0.2086
Brier Score
Better than FiveThirtyEight
0.7227
ROC-AUC
Elite (>0.70)
0.6071
Log Loss
Excellent
+5.39%
Betting ROI
2024 Season (220 bets)

How It Works

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Advanced ML

XGBoost classifier trained on 10 years of NFL data with ELO ratings and comprehensive team statistics

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Kelly Criterion

Optimal bet sizing using Kelly Criterion with multiple cap strategies for risk management

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Temperature Scaling

Post-hoc calibration improves probability estimates for more accurate betting decisions

Model Performance

Our model achieves industry-leading performance metrics, outperforming established prediction systems like FiveThirtyEight's QB-Elo model:

  • Brier Score of 0.2086 - Better than FiveThirtyEight's 0.2190, indicating more accurate probability predictions
  • ROC-AUC of 0.7227 - Exceeds the 0.70 threshold for elite discrimination ability
  • Expected Calibration Error (ECE) of 0.0364 - Well-calibrated probabilities through temperature scaling
  • +5.39% ROI - Profitable betting performance across 220 bets in 2024 season

Note: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Sports betting involves risk. Bet responsibly.